The Statecraft Blueprint

Americans Have Stopped Believing Officials Listen

Two independent measures of external political efficacy, 1952–2024. In 1960, three in four Americans who took a side said public officials cared what people like them think. In 2024, one in six did.

Two lines, one story. The navy line is the ANES item this chapter quotes — “public officials don’t care much what people like me think” — showing the share who disagree, among respondents who took a side either way. The lighter line is ANES’s own external efficacy index (VCF0648), which averages that item with a second one and scores “neither” at the midpoint. Two different constructions, built by different hands, tracking each other for seventy years. The index runs a little higher after 1988 because that midpoint scoring pulls it toward the center; it ends at 2020 because ANES has not yet scored it for 2024.
Say officials do care — % of those taking a side
ANES external efficacy index, VCF0648 (0–100)
75%
1960 — the high point of the series
59%
2002 — the post-9/11 rally, the only real reversal in seventy years
16%
2024 — the lowest reading on record

Source: ANES Time Series Cumulative Data File (1948–2024), variables VCF0609 and VCF0648, weighted with VCF0009z, computed directly from the cumulative microdata — electionstudies.org. Full data and methodology: sources.md  |  Raw data: data.csv  |  Extract script: anes_efficacy_extract.py