The Statecraft Blueprint

The Middle Has Disappeared

Percentage of U.S. House and Senate members classified as moderate by DW-NOMINATE voting scores, 92nd–119th Congress (1971–2025). A "moderate" is defined as a member whose ideology score falls within 0.25 of center — neither strongly liberal nor strongly conservative. Both chambers decline along the same broad trajectory, though the Senate declined later and more gradually before converging with the House in the last decade.

U.S. House
U.S. Senate
40% / 43%
of House / Senate members
were moderates in 1971
9% / 9%
of House / Senate members are
moderates today (119th Congress,
provisional) — the two chambers
have converged
0
Republicans more liberal than the
most conservative Democrat —
House overlap ended 2002,
Senate overlap ended 2004

Source: Voteview/Poole & Rosenthal, DW-NOMINATE Congressional Roll-Call Votes Database (voteview.com), HSall_members.csv. Moderates defined as members with |DW-NOMINATE dim1 score| < 0.25, the standard Voteview threshold; each point is calculated directly from that Congress's member-level scores, not interpolated. Party-overlap finding: Pew Research Center, "The Polarization in Today's Congress Has Roots That Go Back Decades" (March 2022). 119th Congress figures are provisional (Congress still in session as of this chart's last update). Full methodology: sources.md  |  Raw data: data.csv