The Statecraft Blueprint
Nothing Moves the Reelection Rate
Among U.S. House incumbents who sought reelection, the share who won, 1970–2024.
The three deepest anti-incumbent waves of the era are marked — even in those years,
at least 85% kept their seats.
Who is counted. The denominator is incumbents who sought reelection.
Members who retired, died, or ran for another office are excluded, so total turnover in the
chamber is higher than this line shows — and some of the stability here is at-risk members
leaving before Election Day rather than losing on it. That cuts against the chart rather than for
it: what the line shows is the conservative reading.
25 of 28
elections since 1970 that kept
90%+ of incumbents in office
94%
average reelection rate among
those who ran, 1970–2024
85%
the worst year in five decades
(2010 Tea Party wave)
97%
reelection rate in 2024 —
near the all-time high
Sources: Brookings Institution, Vital Statistics on Congress, Table 2-7 (1970–1994);
OpenSecrets, Reelection Rates Over the Years (1996–2022);
Ballotpedia, Election Results 2024 (2024).
Plotted on a full 0–100% scale: this is a share out of 100, and the truncated axis used
previously magnified variation that is small in absolute terms.
Full data and methodology: sources.md |
Raw data: data.csv